I’m going out on a limb and calling the race (actually I did so three months ago when Herman Cain was the surprise leader in the Republican primary race). Not only will Mitt Romney win the Republican nomination, but he’ll go on to win the general election and oust Barack Obama. Let me tell you my reasoning.
First, why Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination.
There are really just two reasons: 1) he is moderately conservative, which is attractive to the majority of the Republican party, and 2) of all the candidates, he is the one most likely to win against Obama in November. Nothing else matters.
The various candidates rising to the lead only to fall back like a political game of whack-a-mole shows one thing: the majority of Republicans are prejudiced against Mormons. The game of “anyone but Mitt Romney”, or more correctly “anyone but a Mormon” has led people from one candidate to the next because “he isn’t Mitt Romney”. But no candidate has survived the close scrutiny that the electorate has placed on each potential rival to Romney. Under the microscope, Herman Cain and Rick Perry crumbled. Michele Bachman was left at the starting gate.
The current contenders for the “anyone but Mitt” show are Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul.
Newt Gingrich is a shrewd politician, but with 3 wives under his belt, along with adultery surrounding it, and his ethics scandal when he was in Congress, he is hardly the poster boy for “Republican Values” (at least not the ones that they want to hold up publicly to declare as their standards). The majority of Republicans would not be able to vote for Gingrich.
Rick Santorum is a conservative’s conservative. So much so that the moderate Republicans couldn’t support him.
Ron Paul has some good ideas, but they are surrounded by nitwit ideas. If certain ideas could be picked out and discarded in favor of reasonable ideas, he would be a valid choice. But, alas, you take Ron Paul as a package deal. It’s a no-go.
That leaves Mitt Romney. With no major scandals under his belt, his major battle is with his own foot. When he mis-speaks and says that his wife drives two Cadillacs (when he surely meant she has driven two Cadillacs in her life), and when he says the only thing he knows about Nascar is that some of his friends own teams, he winds up being his own worst enemy. But he has a lot going for him. He’s moderately conservative, he is a successful businessman, and he knows how to play politics. I think that makes him the only viable Republican candidate.
Now that we’ve agreed that Mitt will be the Republican candidate, let me tell you why he’ll beat Barack Obama in the general election.
The reasons will be two-fold. First, the Republicans will do anything to get Barack Obama out of office. Their racist conservative tendencies have had them foaming at the mouth since election night. There will be a groundswell of Republicans marching to the polls to get him out of office, led by right-wing nitwits like Rush Limbaugh, Sarah Palin, Michele Bachman, and Ann Coulter. Republicans will turn out in numbers like never before.
On the flip side, Democrats will shrug and stay at home. Many people voted for Barack Obama because he was black (some argue half-black, but that’s enough for them). They wanted to see a black man as president, and they put him in office. Now that goal has been accomplished.
They also (mistakenly) believed in his “everything will change when I’m president” speeches. They believed that a black president in power would mean that blacks and other minorities would be on easy street. They believed that they would get the respect they deserved, and more. They believed that this black man would tell the white Congress what to do and they would step in line.
But a much as he may have wanted things to change, it’s not up to the Pesident to change government. It’s up to the two houses of Congress to do that. And with a black man in the White House, Republicans were in no mood to hear anything he said. Their goal was to make things as bad as possible and then point the finger at him. Right or wrong, Obama has been blamed for everything bad that has happened the last four years and criticized when he took any credit for anything that went well. The public perception has leaned toward the view of a failed Obama presidency.
When November rolls around, the people who were disillusioned with the reality of a black president not being any different from a white president will stay home. They’ll be joined by the people who voted for Barack Obama just because they wanted to make history. And, for good measure, those who truly disagree with his politics and feel that he broke campaign promises that he actually could have kept will also stay home.
The net effect: Say hello to President Mitt Romney.